Crisil Ratings in its latest report has projected that India’s commercial vehicle (CV) industry is set to hit a record high volume of around 12.4 lakh units in FY2027, exceeding its previous high recorded in fiscal 2019. However, industry is likely to experience slower growth of 5-6% this fiscal, a notable moderation after the sharp 13% surge recorded in fiscal 2026.

The rating agency further noted that domestic demand will remain supportive, on the back of infrastructure-led activity, steady replacement demand, and continued benefits from improved affordability following rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates last year. Exports, however, could see some near-term disruptions due to the ongoing developments in West Asia.

According to the report, fiscal 2026 marked a strong domestic recovery, driven by several factors. The GST rate cut from 28% to 18% in September 2025 significantly improved purchase economics, unlocking deferred demand. Additionally, easing interest rates, improving freight utilisation, and a pickup in infrastructure and mining activity reinforced the recovery.