After revision of base year for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) calculation, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has said that the economic growth projection is revised upwards by 20 basis points to 7-7.4 per cent for next fiscal year (FY27) from 6.8-7.2 per cent previously and the GDP size will comfortably cross $4 trillion-mark during the year. He added that based on current indicators, nominal GDP growth would be close to 11 per cent. The Economic Survey presented in Parliament in January had projected a growth rate of 6.8-7.2 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the new series of annual and quarterly National Accounts Estimates with base year 2022-23, which replaces the previous series with base year of 2011-12.

Nageswaran also asserted that the Indian economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum, supported by broad-based activities. About the March quarter GDP growth, he said momentum in the economy is good enough to give a growth rate of 7.3 per cent or more during the period. He said all parameters are good enough to give growth rate of 7.6 per cent in FY26 as per the new series, and added that most of high frequency data are maintaining good momentum. On external side, he said there in merchandise export in January reflecting the US trade related uncertainties. Overall, he said the outlook for the economy continues to maintain strong growth supported by broad-based activity.

He further said favourable supply-side conditions, including robust Rabi sowing, comfortable foodgrain stock and easing global commodity prices, are expected to keep inflation low and stable. He also said fiscal consolidation will be on track in the light of 2022-23 base year GDP revision. With the nominal GDP being lower by roughly Rs 12 lakh crore, the estimated fiscal deficit for 2025-26 will now be 4.5 per cent, but other indicators, such as primary deficit, revenue deficit or effective capital expenditure or capital expenditure to GDP ratios are expected to remain unchanged.

As per the new series, GDP is likely to grow at 7.6 per cent during 2025-26, up from 7.1 per cent in the previous fiscal. MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg said the main reason to change the base year was that the number of data sources has increased, and there was a need to properly incorporate these new data sources into GDP calculations. Additionally, he said there have been structural changes in the economy over the past 10 years, with significant growth in the digital economy, leading to the availability of various new data sources, such as GST and vehicle-related data. As per the second advance estimates, the Indian economy witnessed a growth rate of 6.7 per cent in Q1, 8.4 per cent in Q2 and 7.8 per cent in Q3.