Indian equity markets are likely to make gap-down opening on Monday, following weak global cues as US-Iran ceasefire talks failed to reach any agreement, raising fears of global energy crisis. Moreover, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines ahead of India's retail inflation data, due to be released later in the day.  

Some of the key factors to be watched:

West Asia conflict can hit India's remittances flow: Crisil Ratings said the West Asia conflict may impact India's remittance flow, as one-third of the inflows from the diaspora come from Gulf Cooperation Council countries. 

Centre raises export duties on diesel, aviation turbine fuel: The government has hiked export duty, or windfall tax, on diesel to Rs 55.5 per litre and on aviation fuel ATF to Rs 42 a litre. The duty hikes would be applicable with immediate effect. 

FIIs sell Indian equities worth Rs 48,213 crore in April so far: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained their aggressive sell-off in Indian equities, withdrawing Rs 48,213 crore ($5.14 billion) in the first 10 days of April, as rising geopolitical tensions and global macroeconomic uncertainties reduced risk appetite. 

India-UK free trade pact may come into force from second week of May: The report said the India-UK free trade agreement, signed in July last year, is likely to come into force from the second week of May. 

India, Saudi Arabia discuss supply chain resilience: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal held discussions with Saudi Arabia's Trade Minister Majid bin Abdullah Al Qassabi on ways to strengthen supply chains disrupted due to the West Asia crisis, after holding talks with his counterparts from the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait.

On the global front: The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday as investors kept an eye on ongoing Middle East peace negotiations. Asian markets are trading in red on Monday as investors weigh a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports after talks between Washington and Tehran failed to produce an agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East. 

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks stayed in the positive territory throughout the day and ended over a per cent higher on Friday, propelled by buying in Auto, Capital Goods and Consumer Durables stocks and a positive trend in global equities. Investor sentiment improved amid hopes of further easing in the West Asia crisis ahead of US-Iran negotiations and lower crude prices. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 918.60 points or 1.20% to 77,550.25 and the CNX Nifty was up by 275.50 points or 1.16% to 24,050.60.

Some of the important factors in trade:

India well placed to handle energy shock, backed by strong buffers: The World Bank has said India is well placed to weather the current global energy shock with ample buffers, including high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space and low inflation, which will support growth despite global headwinds.

ADB ups India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.9%: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected India's GDP growth to remain robust at 6.9 per cent in the current fiscal, and rise to 7.3 per cent in next fiscal driven by strong domestic demand, and supported by easing financing conditions and lower US tariffs on Indian goods.

India’s merchandise exports likely to register fall of 2-3% in FY26: Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said India’s merchandise exports are expected to register a fall of 2-3 per cent in 2025-26 due to global economic uncertainties, aggravated by the West Asia crisis.