Traders Position for Another Trump Deadline as Frustration Grows

President Donald Trump’s latest for Iran to agree to a deal is just hours away, and investors are once again finding themselves forced to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

But whether they’re buying more bonds, loading up on commodities or holding cash, they share a common view — weeks of volatility sparked by Trump’s shifting positions have left them frustrated and uncertain about the path forward.

“We just hope the next 24 hours see sense prevail,” said Gary Dugan , chief executive officer at Global CIO Office, who has temporarily relocated from Dubai to stay in his family’s home in the central Indian city of Jabalpur until things cool down. He’s lightening up on equity bets and buying oil through exchange-traded funds.

It’s a scene that’s been replayed many times in recent weeks as Trump repeatedly issued deadlines before extending them, sparking bouts of market swings that have left traders scrambling to keep up. Gauges of volatility in equities and currencies have hit multi-month highs as the clock ticks down to his latest deadline of time Tuesday.

Moves in major asset classes were largely contained in the Asian session on Tuesday, with the dollar struggling to hold onto its early advance while an index of ticked higher. traded above $111 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses.

While the recent price action has been hectic, hedge fund investor Thomas Hayes is optimistic.

“The asymmetry is to the upside,” said Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital in New York. If Trump “fumbles, we will retest the recent lows about 4% down,” he said referring to US equities. “If we get a resolution or cease fire, this market is a coiled spring with about 10% aggressive upside.”

Trump that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be part of any deal to end the Middle East war and escalated threats to obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if his terms aren’t met before the deadline.

He said Monday that talks with Iran are “going well” and that reopening the strait is “a very big priority.” In recent weeks, he has said an agreement on the strait wasn’t among his core prerequisites for ending the conflict.

Trump has also said it was “highly unlikely” that he’d move the deadline again.

In Singapore, currency trader Mingze Wu sees the dollar remaining the favored currency amid the uncertainty.

“To me, the real pain hasn’t truly hit yet,” said Wu of StoneX Financial. “If things don’t improve, it may be mid-April to early May before the dry spell with oil hits, and that’s when chaos will start.”

Still, some investors say they have become somewhat inured to Trump’s threats.

Markets are starting to see Trump as the ‘boy who cried wolf,’” said Hideo Shimomura , a senior portfolio manager at Fivestar Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The focus is increasingly shifting toward how Iran responds, particularly whether it will open the Strait of Hormuz.”

Thousands of miles away in Sydney, Nick Twidale is in a state of high alert as he waits for the next news headline to drop.

“Traders are exhausted, frustrated, apprehensive and they just want clarity,” said the chief market analyst at AT Global Markets. “People are long dollars against everything just to have liquidity because the outcome from Trump’s deadline can be so binary — it’s almost impossible to truly position for it.”