Indian equity markets are likely to make flat to positive start on Monday tracking strong global cues after Iran’s Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened to commercial shipping during the ceasefire period. However, sentiment may remain cautious amid renewed tensions in West Asia following the US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Meanwhile, traders will closely monitor the latest round of US-Iran talks scheduled for later in the day.  

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India's forex reserves jumped $3.825 billion: The RBI said that India's forex reserves jumped $3.825 billion to $700.946 billion during the week ended April 10.

India, Norway discuss ways to fully utilise free trade agreement: The report said that India and Norway have discussed the need to address certain trade and investment barriers to take full benefit of the free trade agreement implemented in October last year.

MSME loans to face higher stress from West Asia conflict Crisil: CRISIL Ratings said in a report that loans to the micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) segment are expected to face relatively higher pressure compared with other portfolios due to the ongoing West Asia conflict and the seasoning of loans extended during a phase of high growth.

FIEO urges government to lift interest subvention cap: The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has urged the government to remove the cap on interest subvention, saying the current level of support is inadequate to cushion the sector amid rising global trade uncertainties.

RBI pulls out Rs 2 lakh crore transient liquidity via 7-day VRRR auction: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has pulled out Rs 2,00,031 crore transient liquidity from the banking system through a seven-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction.

On the global front: The US markets ended in green on Friday amid easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia after Iran's Foreign Minister stated that the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remaining ceasefire period. Asian markets are trading in green on Monday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. 

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended higher by over half percent on Friday, driven by optimism surrounding easing geopolitical tensions, falling crude prices, and fresh foreign fund inflows. Renewed hopes of a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran, along with a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, have materially improved global risk appetite. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 504.86 points or 0.65% to 78,493.54 and the CNX Nifty was up by 156.80 points or 0.65% to 24,353.55.

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India likely to grow at 6.3% despite oil price averages $130/barrel in FY27: Amid the West Asia crisis, S&P Global Ratings has stated that India is likely to grow at 6.3% even if oil prices average $130 per barrel in the current fiscal year (FY27). 

EU's proposed CBAM expansion may impact Indian exporters: Think tank GTRI said the European Union (EU) is planning an expansion of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the move could increase carbon tax costs on Indian manufactured exports to Europe. 

India, New Zealand FTA to be signed on April 27: The report said India and New Zealand will sign a free trade agreement (FTA) on April 27. The free trade pact aims to provide tariff-free access to the island nation's market for domestic exporters' goods and will bring in $20 billion in investment over the next 15 years.