The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) has said that India's sugar output projection for the 2025-26 season has been revised down by 4.4% to 28.3 million tonnes from an earlier first estimate of 29.6 million tonnes amid lower yields in key producing states due to adverse weather.

It said that gross sugar production is expected at 31.5 million tonnes, with 3.2 million tonnes likely to be diverted for ethanol production. Output in the ongoing October-September season is still seen higher than the 26.2 million tonnes produced in 2024-25. 

It said Maharashtra, the country's top sugar-producing state, saw its output estimate cut to 9.97 million tonnes from 10.81 million tonnes, though that remains above the 8.1 million tonnes produced in 2024-25. In Uttar Pradesh, India's second-largest producer, the estimate was trimmed to 9.1 million tonnes from 9.41 million tonnes, slightly below the 9.3 million tonnes recorded last season. It said strong demand for sugarcane from jaggery units reduced cane supply to mills. 

Th industry body added that Karnataka's output projection was lowered to 4.8 million tonnes from 4.91 million tonnes, but remained above the 4.3 million tonnes achieved in 2024-25. While sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh improved by about half a percentage point, yields remained a concern.