Expressing concerns over ongoing conflict between Iran and US-Israel, think tank the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has said that this is likely to impact the movement of goods between India and West Asia. It noted that prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz beyond a week could rapidly spill over from energy markets to fertiliser supplies, industrial inputs, construction materials and export sectors such as diamonds. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel located between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Spanning roughly 55 kilometres at its narrowest point, it is regarded as one of the most vital and heavily used maritime routes globally, particularly for the energy trade. A large portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments transits through this passage, making it a strategically crucial corridor for global shipping and energy supplies.

Following the joint attack by the US and Israel on Iran, the Islamic nation has announced the closure of the Strait. Iran is also targeting West Asian nations, including Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. In 2025, India imported $98.7 billion worth of goods from West Asia, making the region a crucial supplier for energy, fertilisers and industrial raw materials. GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said the largest share was crude oil with India imported about $70 billion worth of petroleum crude and products from West Asia in 2025. The region includes the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) along with other regional economies such as Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

He further said India has about 30 days of stocks, any prolonged disruption in shipments could quickly push up fuel prices, raising transport and logistics costs and feeding into inflation. Farmers would also feel the pressure through higher diesel prices for irrigation pumps and tractors. He added that natural gas supplies face similar risks. According to the GTRI, in 2025, India imported $9.2 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia, accounting for 68.4 per cent of its LNG imports. Similarly, India imported $13.9 billion worth of LPG from West Asia in 2025, representing 46.9 per cent of its LPG imports. It remains the primary cooking fuel for millions of households. With stocks covering roughly two weeks of consumption, any disruption could quickly affect cooking fuel availability.

He also said that the effects of the conflict could also reach India's farm sector through fertiliser supplies. Last year, India imported $3.7 billion worth of fertilisers from West Asia. This included $2.2 billion of mixed fertilisers (NPK), accounting for 31.1 per cent of imports, and $1.5 billion of nitrogen fertilisers, representing 30.3 per cent of imports. He said fertilisers are essential for crop yields across cereals, fruits and vegetables. Supply disruptions during the crop season could reduce fertiliser availability, increase government subsidy costs and push up food prices. He added that India's diamond export industry also depends on Gulf supplies. In 2025, the country imported $6.8 billion worth of rough diamonds from West Asia, accounting for 40.6 per cent of imports.