Citing lower yields in top producers Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, industry body -- Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has revised down India's sugar production estimate to 32.4 million tonne (MT) for the 2025-26 season (October-September). The third advance estimate, released after an executive committee meeting, follows a second projection of 34.3 MT. Output last year was 29.6 MT.

After diverting 3.1 MT for ethanol, net availability will reach 29.3 MT, up from 26.1 MT in 2024-25. It noted that including 5 MT opening stock, the total availability of 34.3 MT exceeds domestic consumption of 28.3 MT. It also forecasts exports at 700,000 tonne and closing stocks at 5.3 MT. Further, net production in Maharashtra is estimated at 10.6 MT, for Uttar Pradesh at 9.25 MT and for Karnataka at 4.84 MT - all revised lower but above last year's levels. 

It said that in Uttar Pradesh, lower yields stem from a varietal replacement programme, though recovery rates improved. Maharashtra and Karnataka saw reduced yields from early sugarcane flowering due to excess rain and shorter harvest windows from higher crush rates. However, planting for 2026-27 season has reportedly improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka.